The shifting winds of war

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/08/europe/crimea-bridge-explosion-intl-hnk/index.html

The next day, Ukrainians celebrated by taking selfies in front of the big sign of the postage stamp depicting explosions on the Kerch bridge.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainians-posing-giant-postage-stamp-190753038.html

Perhaps their celebrations were premature, as they will now suffer the consequences of an expanded war with Russia.

This brought about a Russian response that is now being called the Russian Shock n Awe. Missiles struck many military targets previously considered off limits. Next came the destruction of Ukraine’s energy sector, so that it can no longer supply electricity to European markets. It has left most of Ukraine’s citizens in the dark as well—just in time for winter.

https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/16704

Pushed by NATO, the Ukrainians are provoking Russia into destroying Ukraine as a viable country. Russia has been careful not to destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure, as they were hoping to limit the scope of this war to the eastern provinces. It was a “Special Operation” to liberate ethnic Russians from a hostile Ukrainian government which, since 2014, has embarked on a campaign to destroy Russian culture, language, and people themselves.

What might have been a limited war to take back territory of ethnic Russians that Ukraine has been bombing and shelling for the past 8 years, the Kerch bridge incident has brought this from a Special Operation to an outright war.

Jim Rickards wrote today:

When it comes to the ground war in Ukraine, sourcing reliable information is difficult. It’s true that Ukraine has scored some tactical victories. This has been spun by Western intelligence and the media into a narrative that Russian troops are on the run, morale is collapsing, Putin will soon be deposed, and that he may launch a nuclear attack in desperation.

This narrative is mostly nonsense.

It’s true that Ukraine made some tactical advances. However, those came at a high cost. The Russians made an orderly withdrawal to more fortified lines. The territory taken back by Ukraine is now a killing field where Russian artillery is destroying what’s left of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russians will soon exhibit their skill at winter warfare with a major offensive backed by hypersonic missiles, drones, and the sabotage of Ukrainian infrastructure.

Russia will take all of the eastern territory to the river, where most of the ethnic Russians live. They probably won’t want to take the western portion of Ukraine, because they don’t want to rule over angry Ukrainians, nor do they want the responsibility of rebuilding the infrastructure of Ukraine.

NATO has already lost this war. It is only a matter of time before Ukraine collapses, first economically and then militarily. NATO’s loss will mark a key change in world history, because other nations will realign accordingly. The Saudis have already taken the lead in this.