Rand Corporation renounces the report written in their name

The Rand corporation is dismissing the recent article as disinformation, claiming that they did not write it.

https://www.rand.org/latest/russia-ukraine.html#us-strategic-competition-with--

Their claim is this:

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, setting off the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. Ukraine has mounted a strong defense despite being vastly outnumbered, but Russian bombing and shelling have pummeled Ukrainian cities, civilian casualties are growing by the day, and the fighting has sparked an enormous refugee crisis.

It is clear that the analysis that they are dismissing has far more validity than the one they are promoting in public. To say that “Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine” is an outright lie—and they know it! To say that Russia “vastly outnumbered” the Ukrainian forces is terribly misleading. Russia’s army totals more than 1.2 million, compared to Ukraine’s 600,000 men, but Russia only committed a small portion of its army to the war.

The fact is, most of the fighting has been done by the local militias of the Donbas area. While these are certainly ethnic Russians fighting for independence since 2014, Russia’s main support has come in the form of backup artillery.

In other words, Ukraine vastly outnumbers Russian forces in this war. In fact, Ukraine outnumbers all of the Donbas militias and Russian forces by more than 3:1.

Thirdly, the Rand corporation claims that “Russian bombing and shelling have pummeled Ukrainian cities, civilian casualties are growing by the day.” This is precisely the opposite of the truth. It is the Ukrainian forces that have been shelling Donetsk and other cities for the past 8 years. The militias were completely on the defense until Russia finally stepped in to assist the militias.

This is easily corroborated by video reports on the ground. In fact, the local people expressed anger that Russia did not support them earlier. Ukraine’s shelling of Donetsk was not enough to provoke Russia into the war. It was only when it was clear that Ukraine would seek NATO membership that the red line was crossed. That provocation was real.

The Rand’s public claim is total propaganda, and this is deliberate.

The report that the Rand claims is disinformation is far more accurate than the propaganda they are pushing. If they had embraced this latest report, I might have grudgingly acknowledged their brilliance in forecasting the results of their provocation on the EU and Germany in particular. The Europeans themselves will suffer the consequences of their leaders’ decisions. They are already being told that it will be a cold winter and that industries will be shut down for lack of energy supplies from Russia.

The EU is pursuing suicidal policies. No developed country can function without energy. When the EU sanctioned Russian oil and gas, Russia did what it could to continue supplying Europe with its energy needs. The EU and the USA then blamed Russia for trying to get around the sanctions. Then when Russia began to accommodate the sanctions by turning off the oil and gas supplies, the EU blamed Russia for using energy as a weapon!

Clearly, this is a propaganda war. Russia is blamed either way for the sanctions policy of the West. Need I remind everyone that it was the EU and the USA that sanctioned Russia—not the other way around. Russia did not finally turn off the Nord Stream 1 pipeline until September 1.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62732835

Whoever wrote the article in the name of the Rand Corporation had a clear idea of what was really going on behind the scenes. The position he/she took was that the US government knew exactly what the results would be on Germany and the EU as a whole. The Rand’s public claim suggests that the US miscalculated completely and accidentally brought about an energy disaster upon the West.

Who is right? I cannot say for sure. It may be explained by Nebuchadnezzar’s madness playing out in modern Babylon. Or it may be pure propaganda, where the governments and their think tanks secretly know exactly what they are doing but feed the gullible public the opposite story.

In the end, it will only matter if this ever reaches a military tribunal where the motives of these leaders might make a difference. Meanwhile, the West is suffering by its own sanctions policy, although (again) they claim that Russia is about to implode! Russia is soon going to run out of ammunition! Putin is sick with cancer! Putin’s rivals will soon overthrow him!

The propaganda machines have been spewing out these lies since March. Their claims are the opposite of the truth. Russia has plenty of new customers in China and India. It is the West that will suffer most. Putin is more popular than ever in Russia. Russian industry produces about 1.7 million shells per year and can easily sustain the war effort in Ukraine. (Meanwhile, the Pentagon wants to restock its shelves at the rate of 12,000 shells per month. It seems that the US military is running short of ammunition to send to Ukraine.)

The bottom line is that the report claiming to be from the Rand Corporation might be Rand’s secret report that should not have been circulated—or it might be written by a keen observer in their name. I doubt that we will ever know for sure. Neither contention can be proven today. But the report in question is far more realistic than the propaganda being produced by Rand.